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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/

    In e-health intervention studies, there are concerns about the reliability of internet-based, self-reported (SR) data and about the potential for identity fraud. This study introduced and tested a novel procedure for assessing the validity of internet-based, SR identity and validated anthropometric and demographic data via measurements performed face-to-face in a validation study (VS). Participants (n = 140) from seven European countries, participating in the Food4Me intervention study which aimed to test the efficacy of personalised nutrition approaches delivered via the internet, were invited to take part in the VS. Participants visited a research centre in each country within 2 weeks of providing SR data via the internet. Participants received detailed instructions on how to perform each measurement. Individual’s identity was checked visually and by repeated collection and analysis of buccal cell DNA for 33 genetic variants. Validation of identity using genomic information showed perfect concordance between SR and VS. Similar results were found for demographic data (age and sex verification). We observed strong intra-class correlation coefficients between SR and VS for anthropometric data (height 0.990, weight 0.994 and BMI 0.983). However, internet-based SR weight was under-reported (Δ −0.70 kg [−3.6 to 2.1], p < 0.0001) and, therefore, BMI was lower for SR data (Δ −0.29 kg m−2 [−1.5 to 1.0], p < 0.0001). BMI classification was correct in 93 % of cases. We demonstrate the utility of genotype information for detection of possible identity fraud in e-health studies and confirm the reliability of internet-based, SR anthropometric and demographic data collected in the Food4Me study. Trial registration: NCT01530139 (http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT01530139© 2015, European Union.

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    Article . 2015
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      Article . 2015
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    Authors: Madritsch, Christoph; Eckl-Dorna, Julia; Blatt, Katharina; Ellinger, Isabella; +5 Authors
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    Authors: Rogelj, J.; McCollum, D.L.; O'Neill, B.C.; Riahi, K.;

    This paper presents a systematic scenario analysis of how different levels of short-term 2020 emissions would impact the technological and economic feasibility of achieving the 2 degree C target in the long term. We find that although a relatively wide range of emissions in 2020 - from 41 to 55 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e/yr) - may preserve the option of meeting a 2 degree C target, the size of this "feasibility window" strongly depends on the prospects of key energy technologies, and in particular on the effectiveness of efficiency measures to limit the growth of energy demand. A shortfall of critical technologies - either for technological or socio-political reasons - would narrow the feasibility window, if not close it entirely. Targeting lower 2020 emissions levels of 41-47GtCO2e/yr would allow the 2 degree C target to be achieved under a wide range of assumptions, and thus help to hedge against the risks of long-term uncertainties.

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    Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
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      image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
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      Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Carla Tagliaferri; Roland Clift; Paola Lettieri; Chris Chapman;

    Purpose Following the boom of shale gas production in the USA and the decrease in the US gas prices, increasing interest in shale gas is developing in many countries holding shale reserves and exploration is already taking place in some EU countries, including the UK. Any commercial development of shale gas in Europe requires a broad environmental assessment, recognizing the different European conditions and legislations. Methods This study focuses on the UK situation and estimates the environmental impacts of shale gas using lifecycle assessment (LCA); the burdens of shale gas production in the UK are compared with the burdens of the current UK natural gas mix. The main focus is on the analysis of water impacts, but a broad range of other impact categories are also considered. A sensitivity analysis is performed on the most environmentally criticized operations in shale gas production, including flowback disposal and emission control, by considering a range of possible process options. Results and discussion Improper waste water management and direct disposal or spills of waste water to river can lead to high water and human ecotoxicity. Mining of the sand and withdrawal of the water used in fracking fluids determine the main impacts on water use and degradation. However, the water degradation of the conventional natural gas supply to the UK is shown to be even higher than that of shale gas. For the global warming potential (GWP), the handling methods of the emissions associated with the hydraulic fracturing influence the results only when emissions are vented. Finally, the estimated ultimate recovery of the well has the greatest impact on the results as well as the flowback ratio and flowback disposal method. Conclusions This paper provides insights to better understand the future development of shale gas in the UK. Adequate waste water management and emission handling significantly reduce the environmental impacts of shale gas production. Policy makers should consider that shale gas at the same time increases the water consumption and decreases the water degradation when compared with the gas mix supply. Furthermore, the environmental impacts of shale gas should be considered according to the low productivity that force the drilling and exploitation of a high number of wells.

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    Authors: Ma, Lin; Taylor, Kevin G.; Dowey, Patrick J.; Courtois, Loic; +2 Authors

    Understanding the distribution of pores and organic matter with varying organic matter concentrations and maturity is essential to understanding fluid flow in shale systems. Analysis of samples with low, medium, and high total organic carbon (TOC) and varying maturities (gas-mature and oil-mature) enables the impact of both organic matter concentrations and thermal maturation on organic matter porosity to be examined. Three gas-mature samples of varying TOC (Lublin Basin) and one oil-mature sample (Baltic Basin), both with similar mineral compositions, were selected from the same formation. Samples were imaged in 3D over four orders of magnitudes (pixel sizes from 44 μm to 5 nm). A combination of X-ray computed tomography (XCT) and Focus Ion Beam Scanning Electron Microscopy (FIB-SEM) enabled the morphologic and topological characteristics of minerals, organic matter and pores to be imaged and quantified.In the studied samples, organic matter primarily has two geometries: lamellar 25 masses (length: 1-100 μm, thickness: 0.5-2.0 μm) and discrete spheroidal particles (0.5-20.0 μm). Organic matter forms an inter-connected network where it exceeds a concentration between 6 and 18 wt%. Different pore types have different diameters and total pore volumes: inter-mineral pores (0.2 μm, 10-94 %), organic interface pores (0.2 μm, 2-77 %), intra-organic pores (0.05 μm, 1-40 %) and intra30 mineral pores (0.05 μm diameter, 1-2 % of total porosity). The major pore system in the studied shales is composed of inter-mineral pores which occur between clay mineral grains. TOC concentration influences the total volume of organic matter-related pores while maturity controls the presence of intra-organic pores. The study improves the understanding of the relationship of organic matter concentrations, maturity and pore systems in shales. This study characterises porosity and organic matter distributions in 3D; it also improves the understanding of the relationship of organic matter concentrations, maturity and pore systems in shales.

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    Authors: J. A. Franke; J. A. Franke; C. Müller; J. Elliott; +33 Authors

    Statistical emulation allows combining advantageous features of statistical and process-based crop models for understanding the effects of future climate changes on crop yields. We describe here the development of emulators for nine process-based crop models and five crops using output from the Global Gridded Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2. The GGCMI Phase 2 experiment is designed with the explicit goal of producing a structured training dataset for emulator development that samples across four dimensions relevant to crop yields: atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, temperature, water supply, and nitrogen inputs (CTWN). Simulations are run under two different adaptation assumptions: that growing seasons shorten in warmer climates, and that cultivar choice allows growing seasons to remain fixed. The dataset allows emulating the climatological-mean yield response of all models with a simple polynomial in mean growing-season values. Climatological-mean yields are a central metric in climate change impact analysis; we show here that they can be captured without relying on interannual variations. In general, emulation errors are negligible relative to differences across crop models or even across climate model scenarios; errors become significant only in some marginal lands where crops are not currently grown. We demonstrate that the resulting GGCMI emulators can reproduce yields under realistic future climate simulations, even though the GGCMI Phase 2 dataset is constructed with uniform CTWN offsets, suggesting that the effects of changes in temperature and precipitation distributions are small relative to those of changing means. The resulting emulators therefore capture relevant crop model responses in a lightweight, computationally tractable form, providing a tool that can facilitate model comparison, diagnosis of interacting factors affecting yields, and integrated assessment of climate impacts.

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    Authors: A. Hilboll; A. Richter; A. Rozanov; Ø. Hodnebrog; +4 Authors

    Satellite measurements of atmospheric trace gases have proved to be an invaluable tool for monitoring the Earth system. When these measurements are to be used for assessing tropospheric emissions and pollution, as for example in the case of nadir measurements of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), it is necessary to separate the stratospheric from the tropospheric signal. The SCIAMACHY instrument offers the unique opportunity to combine its measurements in limb- and nadir-viewing geometries into a tropospheric data product, using the limb measurements of the stratospheric NO2 abundances to correct the nadir measurements' total columns. In this manuscript, we present a novel approach to limb/nadir matching, calculating one stratospheric NO2 value from limb measurements for every single nadir measurement, abandoning global coverage for the sake of spatial accuracy. For comparison, modelled stratospheric NO2 columns from the Oslo CTM2 are also evaluated for stratospheric correction. Our study shows that stratospheric NO2 columns from SCIAMACHY limb measurements very well reflect stratospheric conditions. The zonal variability of the stratospheric NO2 field is captured by our matching algorithm, and the quality of the resulting tropospheric NO2 columns improves considerably. Both stratospheric datasets need to be adjusted to the level of the nadir measurements, because a time- and latitude-dependent bias to the measured nadir columns can be observed over clean regions. After this offset is removed, the two datasets agree remarkably well, and both stratospheric correction methods provide a significant improvement to the retrieval of tropospheric NO2 columns from the SCIAMACHY instrument.

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    Authors: Theurl, Michaela; Haberl, Helmut; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Lindenthal, Thomas;

    International audience; Transport from regional production requires less fossil fuel and thus produces lower greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, policies fostering the production of regional goods support rural development. Tomato consumption has increased fast in Europe over the last decade. Intensive production techniques such as heated greenhouses and long-distance transport overcome seasonal constraints in order to provide year-round fresh goods. However, studies that evaluate seasonal and off-season production are scarce. Here, we analyzed the carbon footprint of tomato production systems in Austria, Spain, and Italy using a life cycle approach. We collected data from four main supply chains ending at the point of sale in an average Austrian supermarket. We aimed to identify hotspots of greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production, heating, packaging, processing, and transport. Our results show that imported tomatoes from Spain and Italy have two times lower greenhouse gas emissions than those produced in Austria in capital-intensive heated systems. On the contrary, tomatoes from Spain and Italy were found to have 3.7 to 4.7 times higher greenhouse gas emissions in comparison to less-intensive organic production systems in Austria. Therefore, greenhouse gas emissions from tomato production highly depend on the production system such as the prevalence or absence of heating.

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    Authors: Tittensor, Derek P.; Eddy, Tyler D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Galbraith, Eric D.; +33 Authors

    International audience; Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development , contrasted within-and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0), part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning , processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size), and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM) Coupled Model Intercompari-son Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from the 1950s) and future (to 2100) time periods; it will be adapted to CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between and uncertainties within models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems and the services they provide. The systematic generation, collation, and comparison of results from Fish-MIP will inform an understanding of the range of plausible changes in marine ecosystems and improve our capacity to define and convey the strengths and weaknesses of model-based advice on future states of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Ultimately, Fish-MIP represents a step towards bringing together the marine ecosystem modelling community to produce consistent ensemble medium-and long-term projections of marine ecosystems.

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    Horizon / Pleins textes
    Other literature type . 2018
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    Authors: Lande-Sudall, David; Stallard, Timothy; Stansby, Peter;

    This paper evaluates the potential for co-location of offshore wind turbines at sites being developed for tidal stream arrays as a method for reducing the cost of electricity. It is shown that for a typical tidal site, MeyGen in the Pentland Firth, UK, increasing the wind turbine capacity reduces the cost of electricity compared to operating tidal stream arrays alone. This is due to increased energy yield combined with reduction of capital expenditure based on the use of common grid connection and shared support structures. Assessment is made using tidal, wave and wind resource data for a three year period. The overturning moment about the base of a monopile supporting a wind turbine with two tidal turbines is only 8% larger than for a wind turbine alone in a strong current typical of tidal farms. The increased cost of infrastructure is small relative to the increased energy yield and for all array configurations of practical interest, the levelised capital cost of energy is estimated to be 10-12% less from a co-located farm than from a tidal turbine farm alone.

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    In e-health intervention studies, there are concerns about the reliability of internet-based, self-reported (SR) data and about the potential for identity fraud. This study introduced and tested a novel procedure for assessing the validity of internet-based, SR identity and validated anthropometric and demographic data via measurements performed face-to-face in a validation study (VS). Participants (n = 140) from seven European countries, participating in the Food4Me intervention study which aimed to test the efficacy of personalised nutrition approaches delivered via the internet, were invited to take part in the VS. Participants visited a research centre in each country within 2 weeks of providing SR data via the internet. Participants received detailed instructions on how to perform each measurement. Individual’s identity was checked visually and by repeated collection and analysis of buccal cell DNA for 33 genetic variants. Validation of identity using genomic information showed perfect concordance between SR and VS. Similar results were found for demographic data (age and sex verification). We observed strong intra-class correlation coefficients between SR and VS for anthropometric data (height 0.990, weight 0.994 and BMI 0.983). However, internet-based SR weight was under-reported (Δ −0.70 kg [−3.6 to 2.1], p < 0.0001) and, therefore, BMI was lower for SR data (Δ −0.29 kg m−2 [−1.5 to 1.0], p < 0.0001). BMI classification was correct in 93 % of cases. We demonstrate the utility of genotype information for detection of possible identity fraud in e-health studies and confirm the reliability of internet-based, SR anthropometric and demographic data collected in the Food4Me study. Trial registration: NCT01530139 (http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT01530139© 2015, European Union.

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    Article . 2015
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    Authors: Madritsch, Christoph; Eckl-Dorna, Julia; Blatt, Katharina; Ellinger, Isabella; +5 Authors
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    Authors: Rogelj, J.; McCollum, D.L.; O'Neill, B.C.; Riahi, K.;

    This paper presents a systematic scenario analysis of how different levels of short-term 2020 emissions would impact the technological and economic feasibility of achieving the 2 degree C target in the long term. We find that although a relatively wide range of emissions in 2020 - from 41 to 55 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e/yr) - may preserve the option of meeting a 2 degree C target, the size of this "feasibility window" strongly depends on the prospects of key energy technologies, and in particular on the effectiveness of efficiency measures to limit the growth of energy demand. A shortfall of critical technologies - either for technological or socio-political reasons - would narrow the feasibility window, if not close it entirely. Targeting lower 2020 emissions levels of 41-47GtCO2e/yr would allow the 2 degree C target to be achieved under a wide range of assumptions, and thus help to hedge against the risks of long-term uncertainties.

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    Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Carla Tagliaferri; Roland Clift; Paola Lettieri; Chris Chapman;

    Purpose Following the boom of shale gas production in the USA and the decrease in the US gas prices, increasing interest in shale gas is developing in many countries holding shale reserves and exploration is already taking place in some EU countries, including the UK. Any commercial development of shale gas in Europe requires a broad environmental assessment, recognizing the different European conditions and legislations. Methods This study focuses on the UK situation and estimates the environmental impacts of shale gas using lifecycle assessment (LCA); the burdens of shale gas production in the UK are compared with the burdens of the current UK natural gas mix. The main focus is on the analysis of water impacts, but a broad range of other impact categories are also considered. A sensitivity analysis is performed on the most environmentally criticized operations in shale gas production, including flowback disposal and emission control, by considering a range of possible process options. Results and discussion Improper waste water management and direct disposal or spills of waste water to river can lead to high water and human ecotoxicity. Mining of the sand and withdrawal of the water used in fracking fluids determine the main impacts on water use and degradation. However, the water degradation of the conventional natural gas supply to the UK is shown to be even higher than that of shale gas. For the global warming potential (GWP), the handling methods of the emissions associated with the hydraulic fracturing influence the results only when emissions are vented. Finally, the estimated ultimate recovery of the well has the greatest impact on the results as well as the flowback ratio and flowback disposal method. Conclusions This paper provides insights to better understand the future development of shale gas in the UK. Adequate waste water management and emission handling significantly reduce the environmental impacts of shale gas production. Policy makers should consider that shale gas at the same time increases the water consumption and decreases the water degradation when compared with the gas mix supply. Furthermore, the environmental impacts of shale gas should be considered according to the low productivity that force the drilling and exploitation of a high number of wells.

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    Authors: Ma, Lin; Taylor, Kevin G.; Dowey, Patrick J.; Courtois, Loic; +2 Authors

    Understanding the distribution of pores and organic matter with varying organic matter concentrations and maturity is essential to understanding fluid flow in shale systems. Analysis of samples with low, medium, and high total organic carbon (TOC) and varying maturities (gas-mature and oil-mature) enables the impact of both organic matter concentrations and thermal maturation on organic matter porosity to be examined. Three gas-mature samples of varying TOC (Lublin Basin) and one oil-mature sample (Baltic Basin), both with similar mineral compositions, were selected from the same formation. Samples were imaged in 3D over four orders of magnitudes (pixel sizes from 44 μm to 5 nm). A combination of X-ray computed tomography (XCT) and Focus Ion Beam Scanning Electron Microscopy (FIB-SEM) enabled the morphologic and topological characteristics of minerals, organic matter and pores to be imaged and quantified.In the studied samples, organic matter primarily has two geometries: lamellar 25 masses (length: 1-100 μm, thickness: 0.5-2.0 μm) and discrete spheroidal particles (0.5-20.0 μm). Organic matter forms an inter-connected network where it exceeds a concentration between 6 and 18 wt%. Different pore types have different diameters and total pore volumes: inter-mineral pores (0.2 μm, 10-94 %), organic interface pores (0.2 μm, 2-77 %), intra-organic pores (0.05 μm, 1-40 %) and intra30 mineral pores (0.05 μm diameter, 1-2 % of total porosity). The major pore system in the studied shales is composed of inter-mineral pores which occur between clay mineral grains. TOC concentration influences the total volume of organic matter-related pores while maturity controls the presence of intra-organic pores. The study improves the understanding of the relationship of organic matter concentrations, maturity and pore systems in shales. This study characterises porosity and organic matter distributions in 3D; it also improves the understanding of the relationship of organic matter concentrations, maturity and pore systems in shales.

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    Authors: J. A. Franke; J. A. Franke; C. Müller; J. Elliott; +33 Authors

    Statistical emulation allows combining advantageous features of statistical and process-based crop models for understanding the effects of future climate changes on crop yields. We describe here the development of emulators for nine process-based crop models and five crops using output from the Global Gridded Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2. The GGCMI Phase 2 experiment is designed with the explicit goal of producing a structured training dataset for emulator development that samples across four dimensions relevant to crop yields: atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, temperature, water supply, and nitrogen inputs (CTWN). Simulations are run under two different adaptation assumptions: that growing seasons shorten in warmer climates, and that cultivar choice allows growing seasons to remain fixed. The dataset allows emulating the climatological-mean yield response of all models with a simple polynomial in mean growing-season values. Climatological-mean yields are a central metric in climate change impact analysis; we show here that they can be captured without relying on interannual variations. In general, emulation errors are negligible relative to differences across crop models or even across climate model scenarios; errors become significant only in some marginal lands where crops are not currently grown. We demonstrate that the resulting GGCMI emulators can reproduce yields under realistic future climate simulations, even though the GGCMI Phase 2 dataset is constructed with uniform CTWN offsets, suggesting that the effects of changes in temperature and precipitation distributions are small relative to those of changing means. The resulting emulators therefore capture relevant crop model responses in a lightweight, computationally tractable form, providing a tool that can facilitate model comparison, diagnosis of interacting factors affecting yields, and integrated assessment of climate impacts.

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    Article . 2020
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      Article . 2020
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    Authors: A. Hilboll; A. Richter; A. Rozanov; Ø. Hodnebrog; +4 Authors

    Satellite measurements of atmospheric trace gases have proved to be an invaluable tool for monitoring the Earth system. When these measurements are to be used for assessing tropospheric emissions and pollution, as for example in the case of nadir measurements of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), it is necessary to separate the stratospheric from the tropospheric signal. The SCIAMACHY instrument offers the unique opportunity to combine its measurements in limb- and nadir-viewing geometries into a tropospheric data product, using the limb measurements of the stratospheric NO2 abundances to correct the nadir measurements' total columns. In this manuscript, we present a novel approach to limb/nadir matching, calculating one stratospheric NO2 value from limb measurements for every single nadir measurement, abandoning global coverage for the sake of spatial accuracy. For comparison, modelled stratospheric NO2 columns from the Oslo CTM2 are also evaluated for stratospheric correction. Our study shows that stratospheric NO2 columns from SCIAMACHY limb measurements very well reflect stratospheric conditions. The zonal variability of the stratospheric NO2 field is captured by our matching algorithm, and the quality of the resulting tropospheric NO2 columns improves considerably. Both stratospheric datasets need to be adjusted to the level of the nadir measurements, because a time- and latitude-dependent bias to the measured nadir columns can be observed over clean regions. After this offset is removed, the two datasets agree remarkably well, and both stratospheric correction methods provide a significant improvement to the retrieval of tropospheric NO2 columns from the SCIAMACHY instrument.

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    Article . 2013
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    Authors: Theurl, Michaela; Haberl, Helmut; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Lindenthal, Thomas;

    International audience; Transport from regional production requires less fossil fuel and thus produces lower greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, policies fostering the production of regional goods support rural development. Tomato consumption has increased fast in Europe over the last decade. Intensive production techniques such as heated greenhouses and long-distance transport overcome seasonal constraints in order to provide year-round fresh goods. However, studies that evaluate seasonal and off-season production are scarce. Here, we analyzed the carbon footprint of tomato production systems in Austria, Spain, and Italy using a life cycle approach. We collected data from four main supply chains ending at the point of sale in an average Austrian supermarket. We aimed to identify hotspots of greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production, heating, packaging, processing, and transport. Our results show that imported tomatoes from Spain and Italy have two times lower greenhouse gas emissions than those produced in Austria in capital-intensive heated systems. On the contrary, tomatoes from Spain and Italy were found to have 3.7 to 4.7 times higher greenhouse gas emissions in comparison to less-intensive organic production systems in Austria. Therefore, greenhouse gas emissions from tomato production highly depend on the production system such as the prevalence or absence of heating.

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    Authors: Tittensor, Derek P.; Eddy, Tyler D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Galbraith, Eric D.; +33 Authors

    International audience; Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development , contrasted within-and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0), part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning , processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size), and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM) Coupled Model Intercompari-son Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from the 1950s) and future (to 2100) time periods; it will be adapted to CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between and uncertainties within models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems and the services they provide. The systematic generation, collation, and comparison of results from Fish-MIP will inform an understanding of the range of plausible changes in marine ecosystems and improve our capacity to define and convey the strengths and weaknesses of model-based advice on future states of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Ultimately, Fish-MIP represents a step towards bringing together the marine ecosystem modelling community to produce consistent ensemble medium-and long-term projections of marine ecosystems.

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    Horizon / Pleins textes
    Other literature type . 2018
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    Authors: Lande-Sudall, David; Stallard, Timothy; Stansby, Peter;

    This paper evaluates the potential for co-location of offshore wind turbines at sites being developed for tidal stream arrays as a method for reducing the cost of electricity. It is shown that for a typical tidal site, MeyGen in the Pentland Firth, UK, increasing the wind turbine capacity reduces the cost of electricity compared to operating tidal stream arrays alone. This is due to increased energy yield combined with reduction of capital expenditure based on the use of common grid connection and shared support structures. Assessment is made using tidal, wave and wind resource data for a three year period. The overturning moment about the base of a monopile supporting a wind turbine with two tidal turbines is only 8% larger than for a wind turbine alone in a strong current typical of tidal farms. The increased cost of infrastructure is small relative to the increased energy yield and for all array configurations of practical interest, the levelised capital cost of energy is estimated to be 10-12% less from a co-located farm than from a tidal turbine farm alone.

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