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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: D. J. Lunt; A. Abe-Ouchi; P. Bakker; A. Berger; +24 Authors

    Abstract. The Last Interglaciation (∼130 to 116 ka) is a time period with a strong astronomically-induced seasonal forcing of insolation compared to modern. Proxy records indicate a significantly different climate to that of the modern, in particular Arctic summer warming and higher eustatic sea level. Because the forcings are relatively well constrained, it provides an opportunity to test numerical models which are used for future climate prediction. In this paper, we compile a set of climate model simulations of the early Last Interglaciation (130 to 125 ka), encompassing a range of model complexity. We compare the models to each other, and to a recently published compilation of Last Interglacial temperature estimates. We show that the annual mean response of the models is rather small, with no clear signal in many regions. However, the seasonal response is more robust, and there is significant agreement amongst models as to the regions of warming vs. cooling. However, the quantitative agreement of the models with data is poor, with the models in general underestimating the magnitude of response seen in the proxies. Taking possible seasonal biases in the proxies into account improves the agreement marginally, but the agreement is still far from perfect. However, a lack of uncertainty estimates in the data does not allow us to draw firm conclusions. Instead, this paper points to several ways in which both modelling and data could be improved, to allow a more robust model-data comparison.

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    OceanRep
    Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
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    MPG.PuRe
    Article . 2013
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    Climate of the Past (CP)
    Article . Preprint
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    Climate of the Past
    Article . 2013
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    Climate of the Past (CP)
    Other literature type . Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY
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    Article . 2013
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    DOAJ
    Article . 2013
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ OceanReparrow_drop_down
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      Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
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      Article . 2013
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      Climate of the Past (CP)
      Article . Preprint
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      Climate of the Past
      Article . 2013
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      Climate of the Past (CP)
      Other literature type . Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
      License: CC BY
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      Article . 2013
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      DOAJ
      Article . 2013
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Masa Kageyama; Sandy P. Harrison; Marie Kapsch; Marcus Lofverstrom; +25 Authors

    The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼ 21 000 years ago) has been a major focus for evaluating how well state-of-the-art climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future using paleoclimate reconstructions. A new generation of climate models has been used to generate LGM simulations as part of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Here, we provide a preliminary analysis and evaluation of the results of these LGM experiments (PMIP4, most of which are PMIP4-CMIP6) and compare them with the previous generation of simulations (PMIP3, most of which are PMIP3-CMIP5). We show that the global averages of the PMIP4 simulations span a larger range in terms of mean annual surface air temperature and mean annual precipitation compared to the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations, with some PMIP4 simulations reaching a globally colder and drier state. However, the multi-model global cooling average is similar for the PMIP4 and PMIP3 ensembles, while the multi-model PMIP4 mean annual precipitation average is drier than the PMIP3 one. There are important differences in both atmospheric and oceanic circulations between the two sets of experiments, with the northern and southern jet streams being more poleward and the changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation being less pronounced in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations than in the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations. Changes in simulated precipitation patterns are influenced by both temperature and circulation changes. Differences in simulated climate between individual models remain large. Therefore, although there are differences in the average behaviour across the two ensembles, the new simulation results are not fundamentally different from the PMIP3-CMIP5 results. Evaluation of large-scale climate features, such as land–sea contrast and polar amplification, confirms that the models capture these well and within the uncertainty of the paleoclimate reconstructions. Nevertheless, regional climate changes are less well simulated: the models underestimate extratropical cooling, particularly in winter, and precipitation changes. These results point to the utility of using paleoclimate simulations to understand the mechanisms of climate change and evaluate model performance.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ OceanRep; Climate of...arrow_drop_down
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    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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    Climate of the Past (CP)
    Other literature type . 2021
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    NARCIS
    Article . 2021
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    DOAJ
    Article . 2021
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: S. Mulitza; T. Bickert; H. C. Bostock; H. C. Bostock; +25 Authors

    We present a global atlas of downcore foraminiferal oxygen and carbon isotope ratios available at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.936747 (Mulitza et al., 2021). The database contains 2,108 published and previously unpublished stable isotope downcore records with 362,067 stable isotope values of various planktonic and benthic species of foraminifera from 1,265 sediment cores. Age constraints are provided by 6,153 uncalibrated radiocarbon ages from 598 (47 %) of the cores. Each stable isotope and radiocarbon series is provided in a separate netCDF file containing fundamental meta data as attributes. The data set can be managed and explored with the free software tool PaleoDataView. The atlas will provide important data for paleoceanographic analyses and compilations, site surveys, or for teaching marine stratigraphy. The database can be updated with new records as they are generated, providing a live ongoing resource into the future.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ OceanReparrow_drop_down
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    OceanRep
    Article . Preprint . 2022 . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Earth System Science Data (ESSD)
    Other literature type . 2021
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    Earth System Science Data (ESSD)
    Other literature type . 2022
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    MPG.PuRe
    Article . 2022
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    Article . 2022
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    Article . 2022
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      OceanRep
      Article . Preprint . 2022 . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
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      Earth System Science Data (ESSD)
      Other literature type . 2021
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      Earth System Science Data (ESSD)
      Other literature type . 2022
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      Article . 2022
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    Authors: Daniel J. Lunt; Fran Bragg; Wing Le Chan; David K. Hutchinson; +26 Authors

    We present results from an ensemble of eight climate models, each of which has carried out simulations of the early Eocene climate optimum (EECO, ∼ 50 million years ago). These simulations have been carried out in the framework of the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP; http://www.deepmip.org, last access: 10 January 2021); thus, all models have been configured with the same paleogeographic and vegetation boundary conditions. The results indicate that these non-CO2 boundary conditions contribute between 3 and 5 ∘C to Eocene warmth. Compared with results from previous studies, the DeepMIP simulations generally show a reduced spread of the global mean surface temperature response across the ensemble for a given atmospheric CO2 concentration as well as an increased climate sensitivity on average. An energy balance analysis of the model ensemble indicates that global mean warming in the Eocene compared with the preindustrial period mostly arises from decreases in emissivity due to the elevated CO2 concentration (and associated water vapour and long-wave cloud feedbacks), whereas the reduction in the Eocene in terms of the meridional temperature gradient is primarily due to emissivity and albedo changes owing to the non-CO2 boundary conditions (i.e. the removal of the Antarctic ice sheet and changes in vegetation). Three of the models (the Community Earth System Model, CESM; the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, GFDL, model; and the Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM) show results that are consistent with the proxies in terms of the global mean temperature, meridional SST gradient, and CO2, without prescribing changes to model parameters. In addition, many of the models agree well with the first-order spatial patterns in the SST proxies. However, at a more regional scale, the models lack skill. In particular, the modelled anomalies are substantially lower than those indicated by the proxies in the southwest Pacific; here, modelled continental surface air temperature anomalies are more consistent with surface air temperature proxies, implying a possible inconsistency between marine and terrestrial temperatures in either the proxies or models in this region. Our aim is that the documentation of the large-scale features and model–data comparison presented herein will pave the way to further studies that explore aspects of the model simulations in more detail, for example the ocean circulation, hydrological cycle, and modes of variability, and encourage sensitivity studies to aspects such as paleogeography, orbital configuration, and aerosols.

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    NORCE Research Archive
    Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
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    Climate of the Past (CP)
    Other literature type . 2021
    DOAJ
    Article . 2021
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      NORCE Research Archive
      Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
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      Climate of the Past (CP)
      Other literature type . 2021
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    Authors: T J Heaton; E Bard; C Bronk Ramsey; M Butzin; +4 Authors

    ABSTRACT Radiocarbon (14C) concentrations in the oceans are different from those in the atmosphere. Understanding these ocean-atmospheric 14C differences is important both to estimate the calendar ages of samples which obtained their 14C in the marine environment, and to investigate the carbon cycle. The Marine20 radiocarbon age calibration curve is created to address these dual aims by providing a global-scale surface ocean record of radiocarbon from 55,000–0 cal yr BP that accounts for the smoothed response of the ocean to variations in atmospheric 14C production rates and factors out the effect of known changes in global-scale palaeoclimatic variables. The curve also serves as a baseline to study regional oceanic 14C variation. Marine20 offers substantial improvements over the previous Marine13 curve. In response to community questions, we provide a short intuitive guide, intended for the lay-reader, on the construction and use of the Marine20 calibration curve. We describe the choices behind the making of Marine20, as well as the similarities and differences compared with the earlier Marine calibration curves. We also describe how to use the Marine20 curve for calibration and how to estimate ΔR—the localized variation in the oceanic 14C levels due to regional factors which are not incorporated in the global-scale Marine20 curve. To aid understanding, illustrative worked examples are provided.

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    Radiocarbon
    Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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      Radiocarbon
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    Authors: D. J. Lunt; A. Abe-Ouchi; P. Bakker; A. Berger; +24 Authors

    Abstract. The Last Interglaciation (∼130 to 116 ka) is a time period with a strong astronomically-induced seasonal forcing of insolation compared to modern. Proxy records indicate a significantly different climate to that of the modern, in particular Arctic summer warming and higher eustatic sea level. Because the forcings are relatively well constrained, it provides an opportunity to test numerical models which are used for future climate prediction. In this paper, we compile a set of climate model simulations of the early Last Interglaciation (130 to 125 ka), encompassing a range of model complexity. We compare the models to each other, and to a recently published compilation of Last Interglacial temperature estimates. We show that the annual mean response of the models is rather small, with no clear signal in many regions. However, the seasonal response is more robust, and there is significant agreement amongst models as to the regions of warming vs. cooling. However, the quantitative agreement of the models with data is poor, with the models in general underestimating the magnitude of response seen in the proxies. Taking possible seasonal biases in the proxies into account improves the agreement marginally, but the agreement is still far from perfect. However, a lack of uncertainty estimates in the data does not allow us to draw firm conclusions. Instead, this paper points to several ways in which both modelling and data could be improved, to allow a more robust model-data comparison.

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    OceanRep
    Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
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    MPG.PuRe
    Article . 2013
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    Climate of the Past (CP)
    Article . Preprint
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: UnpayWall
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    Climate of the Past
    Article . 2013
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    Climate of the Past (CP)
    Other literature type . Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
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    Article . 2013
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    Article . 2013
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      OceanRep
      Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
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      Climate of the Past (CP)
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      Article . 2013
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      Climate of the Past (CP)
      Other literature type . Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
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      Article . 2013
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    Authors: Masa Kageyama; Sandy P. Harrison; Marie Kapsch; Marcus Lofverstrom; +25 Authors

    The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼ 21 000 years ago) has been a major focus for evaluating how well state-of-the-art climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future using paleoclimate reconstructions. A new generation of climate models has been used to generate LGM simulations as part of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Here, we provide a preliminary analysis and evaluation of the results of these LGM experiments (PMIP4, most of which are PMIP4-CMIP6) and compare them with the previous generation of simulations (PMIP3, most of which are PMIP3-CMIP5). We show that the global averages of the PMIP4 simulations span a larger range in terms of mean annual surface air temperature and mean annual precipitation compared to the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations, with some PMIP4 simulations reaching a globally colder and drier state. However, the multi-model global cooling average is similar for the PMIP4 and PMIP3 ensembles, while the multi-model PMIP4 mean annual precipitation average is drier than the PMIP3 one. There are important differences in both atmospheric and oceanic circulations between the two sets of experiments, with the northern and southern jet streams being more poleward and the changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation being less pronounced in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations than in the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations. Changes in simulated precipitation patterns are influenced by both temperature and circulation changes. Differences in simulated climate between individual models remain large. Therefore, although there are differences in the average behaviour across the two ensembles, the new simulation results are not fundamentally different from the PMIP3-CMIP5 results. Evaluation of large-scale climate features, such as land–sea contrast and polar amplification, confirms that the models capture these well and within the uncertainty of the paleoclimate reconstructions. Nevertheless, regional climate changes are less well simulated: the models underestimate extratropical cooling, particularly in winter, and precipitation changes. These results point to the utility of using paleoclimate simulations to understand the mechanisms of climate change and evaluate model performance.

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    Climate of the Past (CP)
    Other literature type . 2021
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    NARCIS
    Article . 2021
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    Article . 2021
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    Authors: S. Mulitza; T. Bickert; H. C. Bostock; H. C. Bostock; +25 Authors

    We present a global atlas of downcore foraminiferal oxygen and carbon isotope ratios available at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.936747 (Mulitza et al., 2021). The database contains 2,108 published and previously unpublished stable isotope downcore records with 362,067 stable isotope values of various planktonic and benthic species of foraminifera from 1,265 sediment cores. Age constraints are provided by 6,153 uncalibrated radiocarbon ages from 598 (47 %) of the cores. Each stable isotope and radiocarbon series is provided in a separate netCDF file containing fundamental meta data as attributes. The data set can be managed and explored with the free software tool PaleoDataView. The atlas will provide important data for paleoceanographic analyses and compilations, site surveys, or for teaching marine stratigraphy. The database can be updated with new records as they are generated, providing a live ongoing resource into the future.

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    OceanRep
    Article . Preprint . 2022 . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
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    Earth System Science Data (ESSD)
    Other literature type . 2021
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    Earth System Science Data (ESSD)
    Other literature type . 2022
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      Other literature type . 2021
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      Earth System Science Data (ESSD)
      Other literature type . 2022
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    Authors: Daniel J. Lunt; Fran Bragg; Wing Le Chan; David K. Hutchinson; +26 Authors

    We present results from an ensemble of eight climate models, each of which has carried out simulations of the early Eocene climate optimum (EECO, ∼ 50 million years ago). These simulations have been carried out in the framework of the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP; http://www.deepmip.org, last access: 10 January 2021); thus, all models have been configured with the same paleogeographic and vegetation boundary conditions. The results indicate that these non-CO2 boundary conditions contribute between 3 and 5 ∘C to Eocene warmth. Compared with results from previous studies, the DeepMIP simulations generally show a reduced spread of the global mean surface temperature response across the ensemble for a given atmospheric CO2 concentration as well as an increased climate sensitivity on average. An energy balance analysis of the model ensemble indicates that global mean warming in the Eocene compared with the preindustrial period mostly arises from decreases in emissivity due to the elevated CO2 concentration (and associated water vapour and long-wave cloud feedbacks), whereas the reduction in the Eocene in terms of the meridional temperature gradient is primarily due to emissivity and albedo changes owing to the non-CO2 boundary conditions (i.e. the removal of the Antarctic ice sheet and changes in vegetation). Three of the models (the Community Earth System Model, CESM; the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, GFDL, model; and the Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM) show results that are consistent with the proxies in terms of the global mean temperature, meridional SST gradient, and CO2, without prescribing changes to model parameters. In addition, many of the models agree well with the first-order spatial patterns in the SST proxies. However, at a more regional scale, the models lack skill. In particular, the modelled anomalies are substantially lower than those indicated by the proxies in the southwest Pacific; here, modelled continental surface air temperature anomalies are more consistent with surface air temperature proxies, implying a possible inconsistency between marine and terrestrial temperatures in either the proxies or models in this region. Our aim is that the documentation of the large-scale features and model–data comparison presented herein will pave the way to further studies that explore aspects of the model simulations in more detail, for example the ocean circulation, hydrological cycle, and modes of variability, and encourage sensitivity studies to aspects such as paleogeography, orbital configuration, and aerosols.

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    NORCE Research Archive
    Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
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    Climate of the Past (CP)
    Other literature type . 2021
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      Climate of the Past (CP)
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    Authors: T J Heaton; E Bard; C Bronk Ramsey; M Butzin; +4 Authors

    ABSTRACT Radiocarbon (14C) concentrations in the oceans are different from those in the atmosphere. Understanding these ocean-atmospheric 14C differences is important both to estimate the calendar ages of samples which obtained their 14C in the marine environment, and to investigate the carbon cycle. The Marine20 radiocarbon age calibration curve is created to address these dual aims by providing a global-scale surface ocean record of radiocarbon from 55,000–0 cal yr BP that accounts for the smoothed response of the ocean to variations in atmospheric 14C production rates and factors out the effect of known changes in global-scale palaeoclimatic variables. The curve also serves as a baseline to study regional oceanic 14C variation. Marine20 offers substantial improvements over the previous Marine13 curve. In response to community questions, we provide a short intuitive guide, intended for the lay-reader, on the construction and use of the Marine20 calibration curve. We describe the choices behind the making of Marine20, as well as the similarities and differences compared with the earlier Marine calibration curves. We also describe how to use the Marine20 curve for calibration and how to estimate ΔR—the localized variation in the oceanic 14C levels due to regional factors which are not incorporated in the global-scale Marine20 curve. To aid understanding, illustrative worked examples are provided.

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    Radiocarbon
    Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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