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description Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Other literature type 2021 Germany, Netherlands, Austria, France, United Kingdom, Belgium, France, United Kingdom, United Kingdom, Germany, United States, BelgiumPublisher:Springer Science and Business Media LLC Funded by:AKA | The impact of Antarctic I..., EC | PROTECT, NSF | The Management and Operat... +6 projectsAKA| The impact of Antarctic Ice Sheet - Southern Ocean interactions on marine ice sheet stability and ocean circulation/ Consortium: COLD ,EC| PROTECT ,NSF| The Management and Operation of the National Center for Atmoshperic Research (NCAR) ,ARC| Special Research Initiatives - Grant ID: SR140300001 ,EC| TiPACCs ,EC| CONSTRAIN ,EC| ERA-PLANET ,AKA| Simulating Antarctic marine ice sheet stability and multi-century contributions to sea level rise ,UKRI| Understanding rising seas and ice by linking coupled models and past climatesTamsin L. Edwards; Sophie Nowicki; Ben Marzeion; Regine Hock; Heiko Goelzer; Helene Seroussi; Nicolas C. Jourdain; Donald Slater; Fiona Turner; Christopher J. Smith; Christine M. McKenna; Erika Simon; Ayako Abe-Ouchi; Jonathan M. Gregory; Eric Larour; William H. Lipscomb; Antony J. Payne; Andrew Shepherd; Cécile Agosta; Patrick Alexander; Torsten Albrecht; Brian Anderson; Xylar Asay-Davis; Andy Aschwanden; Alice Barthel; Andrew Bliss; Reinhard Calov; Christopher Chambers; Nicolas Champollion; Youngmin Choi; Richard I. Cullather; J. K. Cuzzone; Christophe Dumas; Denis Felikson; Xavier Fettweis; Koji Fujita; Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi; Rupert Gladstone; Nicholas R. Golledge; Ralf Greve; Tore Hattermann; Matthew J. Hoffman; Angelika Humbert; Matthias Huss; Philippe Huybrechts; Walter W. Immerzeel; Thomas Kleiner; Philip Kraaijenbrink; Sébastien Le clec'h; Victoria Lee; Gunter R. Leguy; Christopher M. Little; Daniel P. Lowry; Jan Hendrik Malles; Daniel F. Martin; Fabien Maussion; Mathieu Morlighem; James F. O’Neill; Isabel Nias; Frank Pattyn; Tyler Pelle; Stephen Price; Aurélien Quiquet; Valentina Radić; Ronja Reese; David R. Rounce; Martin Rückamp; Akiko Sakai; Courtney Shafer; Nicole Schlegel; Sarah Shannon; Robin S. Smith; Fiammetta Straneo; Sainan Sun; Lev Tarasov; Luke D. Trusel; Jonas Van Breedam; Roderik S. W. van de Wal; Michiel R. van den Broeke; Ricarda Winkelmann; Harry Zekollari; Cheng Zhao; Tong Zhang; Thomas Zwinger;pmid: 33953415
The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2–8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained. Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public. Mathematical Geodesy and Positioning
NARCIS; Nature; TU D... arrow_drop_down NARCIS; Nature; TU Delft RepositoryArticle . 2021Vrije Universiteit Brussel Research PortalOther literature type . 2021Data sources: Vrije Universiteit Brussel Research PortaleScholarship - University of CaliforniaArticle . 2021Data sources: eScholarship - University of CaliforniaSt Andrews Research RepositoryArticle . 2021 . Peer-reviewedData sources: St Andrews Research RepositoryElectronic Publication Information CenterArticle . 2021Data sources: Electronic Publication Information CenterOceanRep; NatureOther literature type . Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewedLicense: Springer Nature TDMadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen bronze 173 citations 173 popularity Top 0.1% influence Top 10% impulse Top 0.1% Powered by BIP!visibility 229visibility views 229 download downloads 458 Powered bymore_vert NARCIS; Nature; TU D... arrow_drop_down NARCIS; Nature; TU Delft RepositoryArticle . 2021Vrije Universiteit Brussel Research PortalOther literature type . 2021Data sources: Vrije Universiteit Brussel Research PortaleScholarship - University of CaliforniaArticle . 2021Data sources: eScholarship - University of CaliforniaSt Andrews Research RepositoryArticle . 2021 . Peer-reviewedData sources: St Andrews Research RepositoryElectronic Publication Information CenterArticle . 2021Data sources: Electronic Publication Information CenterOceanRep; NatureOther literature type . Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewedLicense: Springer Nature TDMadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
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description Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Other literature type 2021 Germany, Netherlands, Austria, France, United Kingdom, Belgium, France, United Kingdom, United Kingdom, Germany, United States, BelgiumPublisher:Springer Science and Business Media LLC Funded by:AKA | The impact of Antarctic I..., EC | PROTECT, NSF | The Management and Operat... +6 projectsAKA| The impact of Antarctic Ice Sheet - Southern Ocean interactions on marine ice sheet stability and ocean circulation/ Consortium: COLD ,EC| PROTECT ,NSF| The Management and Operation of the National Center for Atmoshperic Research (NCAR) ,ARC| Special Research Initiatives - Grant ID: SR140300001 ,EC| TiPACCs ,EC| CONSTRAIN ,EC| ERA-PLANET ,AKA| Simulating Antarctic marine ice sheet stability and multi-century contributions to sea level rise ,UKRI| Understanding rising seas and ice by linking coupled models and past climatesTamsin L. Edwards; Sophie Nowicki; Ben Marzeion; Regine Hock; Heiko Goelzer; Helene Seroussi; Nicolas C. Jourdain; Donald Slater; Fiona Turner; Christopher J. Smith; Christine M. McKenna; Erika Simon; Ayako Abe-Ouchi; Jonathan M. Gregory; Eric Larour; William H. Lipscomb; Antony J. Payne; Andrew Shepherd; Cécile Agosta; Patrick Alexander; Torsten Albrecht; Brian Anderson; Xylar Asay-Davis; Andy Aschwanden; Alice Barthel; Andrew Bliss; Reinhard Calov; Christopher Chambers; Nicolas Champollion; Youngmin Choi; Richard I. Cullather; J. K. Cuzzone; Christophe Dumas; Denis Felikson; Xavier Fettweis; Koji Fujita; Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi; Rupert Gladstone; Nicholas R. Golledge; Ralf Greve; Tore Hattermann; Matthew J. Hoffman; Angelika Humbert; Matthias Huss; Philippe Huybrechts; Walter W. Immerzeel; Thomas Kleiner; Philip Kraaijenbrink; Sébastien Le clec'h; Victoria Lee; Gunter R. Leguy; Christopher M. Little; Daniel P. Lowry; Jan Hendrik Malles; Daniel F. Martin; Fabien Maussion; Mathieu Morlighem; James F. O’Neill; Isabel Nias; Frank Pattyn; Tyler Pelle; Stephen Price; Aurélien Quiquet; Valentina Radić; Ronja Reese; David R. Rounce; Martin Rückamp; Akiko Sakai; Courtney Shafer; Nicole Schlegel; Sarah Shannon; Robin S. Smith; Fiammetta Straneo; Sainan Sun; Lev Tarasov; Luke D. Trusel; Jonas Van Breedam; Roderik S. W. van de Wal; Michiel R. van den Broeke; Ricarda Winkelmann; Harry Zekollari; Cheng Zhao; Tong Zhang; Thomas Zwinger;pmid: 33953415
The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2–8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained. Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public. Mathematical Geodesy and Positioning
NARCIS; Nature; TU D... arrow_drop_down NARCIS; Nature; TU Delft RepositoryArticle . 2021Vrije Universiteit Brussel Research PortalOther literature type . 2021Data sources: Vrije Universiteit Brussel Research PortaleScholarship - University of CaliforniaArticle . 2021Data sources: eScholarship - University of CaliforniaSt Andrews Research RepositoryArticle . 2021 . Peer-reviewedData sources: St Andrews Research RepositoryElectronic Publication Information CenterArticle . 2021Data sources: Electronic Publication Information CenterOceanRep; NatureOther literature type . Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewedLicense: Springer Nature TDMadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen bronze 173 citations 173 popularity Top 0.1% influence Top 10% impulse Top 0.1% Powered by BIP!visibility 229visibility views 229 download downloads 458 Powered bymore_vert NARCIS; Nature; TU D... arrow_drop_down NARCIS; Nature; TU Delft RepositoryArticle . 2021Vrije Universiteit Brussel Research PortalOther literature type . 2021Data sources: Vrije Universiteit Brussel Research PortaleScholarship - University of CaliforniaArticle . 2021Data sources: eScholarship - University of CaliforniaSt Andrews Research RepositoryArticle . 2021 . Peer-reviewedData sources: St Andrews Research RepositoryElectronic Publication Information CenterArticle . 2021Data sources: Electronic Publication Information CenterOceanRep; NatureOther literature type . Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewedLicense: Springer Nature TDMadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu